Organised by the Centre for Finance and Credit and Macroeconomics, Nottingham and we are grateful for co-funding from the Money, Macro and Finance Research Group and the School of Economics, Nottingham.
Location: room A4 Law and Social Sciences Building, University of Nottingham, University Park, Nottingham, NG7 2RD. Enter the Law and Social Sciences Building through the south entrance, next to a statue of D H Lawrence, and go through the double doors in front of you. Room A4 is second on the left.
The visitor’s car park is located behind the economics building (Sir Clive Granger building). The car park is pay and display. A taxi from Nottingham station will take about 10 minutes to the University Park Campus.
Reminder: MMF will refund the reasonable travelling expenses of UK-based academics and PhD students to attend this meeting. In most cases we expect to refund the equivalent of Saver train tickets.
Programme
10.30-11.00: Welcome and coffee
Morning session
11.00-12.30: Forecasting Inflation
Chair: Paul Mizen (CFCM, University of Nottingham)
“An Area-wide Real-time Database for the Euro Area” Domenico Giannone, Universite Libre de Brussels, Jérôme Henry, ECB, Magdalena Lalik ECB, and Michele Modugno, Universite Libre de Brussels) Paper.
“Short-term Forecasting: Norges Bank’s System for Averaging Models”. (Knut Are Aastveit, Karsten R. Gerdrup and Anne Sofie Jore, Norges Bank, and Francesco Ravazzolo, BI Norwegian Business School and Norges Bank)
Discussant: (Nicholas Fawcett, Bank of England)
12.30-14.00: Buffet Lunch
Afternoon sessions
14.00-15.30: Forecasting and Uncertainty
Chair: Kevin Lee (CFCM, University of Nottingham)
“The Measurement and Characteristics of Professional Forecasters’ Uncertainty” (Gianna Boero, Jeremy Smith and Ken Wallis, University of Warwick) Paper.
“Forecasting Oil Prices and Quantifying Oil Price Risks” (Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan and Christiane Baumeister, Bank of Canada) Paper 1, Paper 2.
Discussant: (Stephen Hall, University of Leicester)
15.30-16.00: Coffee break
16.00-17.30 : Survey Forecasts
Chair: David Harvey (CFCM, University of Nottingham)
“Global Recessions and Output Interdependencies in a GVAR Model of Actual and Expected Output in the G7” (Kevin Lee, University of Nottingham, Tony Garrat (Birkbeck), Kalvinder Shields, (University of Melbourne)). Paper.
“Probability Distributions or Point Predictions? Survey Forecasts of US Output Growth and Inflation” (Mike Clements, University of Warwick) Paper.
Discussant: (Terry Mills, University of Loughborough)