Growth rates of per capita GDP are depressed by civil conflict to a degree that reflects its severity. Only the more severe conflicts – ones that affect at least half of the country by land area and/or cause more than 1,000 fatalities in at least one year – have a significant negative growth effect. Post-conflict recovery of output is enhanced by aid flows but this finding may be subject to endogeneity bias.
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Michael Bleaney and Arcangelo Dimico
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Sir Clive Granger BuildingUniversity of Nottingham University Park Nottingham, NG7 2RD
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