We use Synthetic Control Methodology to estimate the output loss in Tunisia as a result of the "Arab spring". Our results suggest that each Tunisian citizen lost, on average, an estimated US$ 600 (5.5 percent of GDP), US$ 574 (5.1 percent of GDP) and US$ 735 (6.4 percent of GDP) in 2011, 2012 and 2013, respectively. These findings are robust to a series of tests. Investment was the main channel through which the economy was impacted by the Arab Spring, as investors were afraid to invest in a highly volatile political environment.
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A revised version has been published in World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 33, no. 1 (February 2019), pp. 231-258.
Samer Matta, Simon Appleton and Michael Bleaney quantify the impact of the Arab Spring (AS) on the Tunisian economy between 2011 and 2013 and determine the main channel through which the economy was impacted.
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