School Brown Bag: Alejandro Graziano

An import(ant) price of Brexit

We estimate the impact of Brexit on UK import prices from European Union firms caused by trade policy uncertainty (TPU). Increases in TPU reduce EU firms’ sunk export investments and thus increase the UK’s CES import price index. Increases in the probability of Brexit (measured before the referendum) raised import prices from the EU in industries facing higher trade barriers post-Brexit.

NB:  Date changed from that previously advertised.