GEP Research Paper 06/21
Has China Displaced Other Asian Countries' Exports?
David Greenaway, Aruneema Mahabir, Chris Milner
Abstract
This paper uses gravity modelling to explore whether and how the growth of China 's exports is displacing exports of other Asian countries to third markets over the period 1990-2003. Chinese exports are defined both narrowly and more broadly to include exports from Hong Kong . We investigate whether the displacement effect on Asian exports differs when exports from Hong Kong and China are combined compared to the narrow case of Chinese exports only. Aggregate and disaggregated analyses are undertaken. In the latter, we explore whether the displacement effect varies across Asian countries and in trade with different types of countries. We find evidence of a displacement effect which is more pronounced in developed markets and stronger for Hong Kong and China combined. Further it is the high income Asian exporters that experienced a greater displacement effect. We also investigate whether China's development has generated any offsetting effects on its neighbours' exports to China itself and find that Chinese growth has indeed increased China's imports from the Asian countries in the sample and in particular Japan and Korea.
Issued in July 2006.
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