The Greek Daily ta NEA hosted an invited op-ed by Dr Georgopoulos (7/9/2019) where he shared his reflections about the Prime Minister's role in Brexit. Here is an an English translation of the Article:
Pericles or Alcibiades?
It is too early to assess the role of the British Prime Minister in Brexit’s end game. However, his actions, from his decision to support “Leave” in the 2016 referendum, even though he had hinted that he would rally for “Remain”, until the recent constitutional acrobatics, cannot not go unnoticed.
He is a lover of classical antiquity and an admirer of Pericles. However, at a first level, his actions are inevitably reminiscent of another emblematic figure of classical Athens, Alcibiades (pointed out also by Simon Jenkins in the Guardian (27/7/2019)). Boris Johnson may not be as sightly but he shares other traits with the Athenian general: "Noble" descent, elite education, charisma, a unique ability to switch friends and allegiances according to his interest and a sense of entitlement. His whole attitude around Brexit and his prima facie obsession with taking the UK out of the EU on 31 October, even in a disorderly fashion (“come what may”), reminds us, not unfairly, of Alcibiades’ role in the disastrous, for the Athenians, Sicilian Expedition.
However, if we take a closer look at the current situation, we will see that Boris Johnson's role in the Brexit grand finale might be, in the end, marginally positive. This is not because he will prevail in the "chicken game " with the EU driving the latter to unthinkable compromises (such as the abolition of the “backstop), but because his stance may lead the markets to react dynamically before the disorderly exit.
As I have suggested previously (here and here ) Brexit’s Gordian Knot will only be solved when "Iphigenia reaches the altar of her sacrifice." Only then will those -often the most vulnerable- who currently dismiss the “no-deal” warnings as scaremongering will have a taste of what disorderly brexit means. But for this to happen, more "tangible" signals are needed from the markets. During Theresa May’s Premiership, which always aimed at a smooth transition and despite some visible warning signs ((for example the fall of the currency, the announcements of car industry closures (Honda) or freeze of investments (Nissan), the transfer of funds/assets abroad by the insurance and financial sector (Aviva, NatWest) or bankruptcies in the aviation sector (flybmi)), the markets’ reaction, from the point of view of the everyday experience, has been considered/interpreted by many as mild.
The problem is that the consequences of a disorderly Brexit will be experienced after the actual exit when it would be probably... too late for “Iphigenia”. This is where the possible positive contribution of Boris Johnson lies: his spasmodic, unprecedented and sometimes constitutionally extreme exploits that (seemingly) try to block Parliament's intervention in order to avoid a disorderly exodus, give the impression to the markets that such an outcome is very likely. This increases the probability that markets would then react more intensely and thus more didactically.
However, there are two givens: First, Boris Johnson is not a Brexit ideologue (as opposed to Jacob Rees-Mogg for instance) but brought himself into this camp in order to serve his personal political ambition. Second, so far, all his decisions have as their compass his political ambition and his place in British political history. I find the idea that the Prime Minister, purely for reasons of principle, would bring himself to the rather unenviable position of managing a disorderly exodus, as a science fiction scenario. This is why I think that Boris Johnson, perhaps unwittingly, could help "Iphigenia gaze at the altar" just before it was too late (letting the UK hang dangerously over Brexit´s cliff edge).
Ultimately, whether Boris Johnson goes down in history as Pericles or Alcibiades, is not merely up to him, but depends on other exogenous factors as well. One thing is certain though: he will not be recorded as Aristeides.
Posted on Monday 9th September 2019