Trump Presidency Impact on EU-Taiwan Relations. How to Maintain the Momentum?
By Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy
Amid growing societal and political polarization, on 20 January 2025, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as the 47th president of the United States (US). The choice of the American people will have ramifications for the entire world. The European Union (EU) and Taiwan, two of America’s closest friends, are likely to experience change in their relations with an unpredictable president, just as they continue to face the challenge of an increasingly assertive China.
The EU and Taiwan are both struggling, in their own ways, to position themselves amid the US-China competition. In response to growing tensions, including China’s support to Russia in its aggression against Ukraine, EU-Taiwan mutual awareness has strengthened, and a positive momentum has emerged in their bilateral engagement.
The EU is exploring ways to expand cooperation with Taiwan without diplomatic recognition. Driven by the fear of losing global relevance, the bloc has been mostly in a reactive mode, playing catch up, seeking to enhance economic resilience and competitiveness in a way that supports its digital transition while balancing regulation and innovation. In this process, it has started to pay more attention to Taiwan, an advanced economy and mature democracy, and also a leader in emerging technologies. Taiwan has doubled down on efforts to engage like-minded partners, including the EU as a whole and individual EU member states, as a way to cement their support to withstand the existential threat it faces from China.
Trump’s foreign policy vision and strategy are still emerging. Yet, the next four years are likely to transform transatlantic relations and significantly impact EU-Taiwan relations. While it is tough to predict how Trump will behave on the global stage, the EU and Taiwan will face pressure to align with Washington, even if, in their perceptions, such alignment might not always serve their interests as much as those of Washington.
Trump’s win appears to be adding a sense of urgency both to Brussels and Taipei to invest in resilience and self-reliance, in cooperation with like-minded partners. Stepping up their resilience individually and, where possible, together and reinforcing mutual awareness is an investment that will benefit both, irrespective of how Trump’s presidency unfolds.
Download the policy paper by Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy (PDF)