Triangle

As the broader geopolitical and geoeconomic environment continues to shift, Donald Trump’s victory in the recently held US presidential elections will have repercussions far beyond the US. On one hand, Trump's re-election will likely lead to an intensification of the US-China trade and tech wars. On the other, the new administration's mercantilist tendencies will also impact the US allies in Europe and the broader Indo-Pacific region. 

Against this backdrop, the Taiwan Research Hub has asked several experts from the US, Europe and in the Indo-Pacific to provide some insights on what the new administration might mean for their respective countries/regions, as well as to suggest some policy recommendations for the relevant stakeholders. 


 

Election win for Trump: A more turbulent future for Taiwan

By Gerrit van der Wees

It was a nail-biting campaign, putting two very opposite personalities and very different policy choices against each other. Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate Tim Waltz crisscrossed the so-called Swing States – where a win or lose in even one or two states could determine the Electoral College outcome – while former President Donald Trump and his running mate JD Vance did the same. The campaign was closely contested, with immigration, abortion, and the economy dominating the headlines, while foreign policy received minimal attention. 

Through the evening of 05 November, election night, it became increasingly clear that Donald Trump would regain the White House. The early lead that Kamala Harris had built up in the swing states of Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan evaporated when the returns from the pro-Trump rural areas came in. At the time of this writing, Trump had passed the 270 Electoral College threshold with 301 votes, while Harris remained at 226, while for the popular vote Trump stood at 51% versus Harris’ 47.5%. 

In the Senate, the Republicans regained a majority with 52 against 46 for the Democrats, with two seats still to be called, while in the U.S. House of Representatives, the majority was still up in the air: Republicans had 213 wins, while the democrats were at 208, with 218 being the necessary number for a majority. 

The results are highly consequential for Taiwan, its safety and security, and its future. In this essay we analyse what we can glean from the two camps by looking at the past pronouncements of the candidates and discuss how this can be seen as indicative of future policies.

Download the policy paper by Gerrit van der Wees (PDF)

 

Navigating Uncertain Times: Taiwan – Southeast Asia Relations Under Trump 2.0

By Ratih Kabinawa

Following Donald Trump's victory in the November 5, 2024 presidential election, making him America's incoming 47th president, nations across Asia are recalibrating their economic and security strategies to prepare for his return to the White House.

Trump's characteristically unpredictable approach to foreign policy, coupled with mounting geopolitical and military tensions across the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, alongside intensifying US-China strategic rivalry, creates great uncertainty for regional states, particularly Taiwan and Southeast Asian nations. How should these Asian middle powers navigate this new political landscape?

The following analysis posits that Taiwan and Southeast Asian nations should enhance their regional cooperation to build greater economic and security resilience, particularly given Trump's anticipated revival of his 'America First' foreign and trade policies.

These states can advance their mutual interests through collaborative initiatives focused on supply chain diversification, minimising exposure to US-China trade tensions, and fostering regional stability and peace.

Through strengthened cooperation, Taiwan and Southeast Asian nations can better weather future uncertainties while protecting their common strategic interests.

Download the Policy Paper by Ratih Kabinawa (PDF)

 

Trump Presidency Impact on EU-Taiwan Relations. How to Maintain the Momentum?

By Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy

Amid growing societal and political polarization, on 20 January 2025, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as the 47th president of the United States (US). The choice of the American people will have ramifications for the entire world. The European Union (EU) and Taiwan, two of America’s closest friends, are likely to experience change in their relations with an unpredictable president, just as they continue to face the challenge of an increasingly assertive China.

The EU and Taiwan are both struggling, in their own ways, to position themselves amid the US-China competition. In response to growing tensions, including China’s support to Russia in its aggression against Ukraine, EU-Taiwan mutual awareness has strengthened, and a positive momentum has emerged in their bilateral engagement.

The EU is exploring ways to expand cooperation with Taiwan without diplomatic recognition. Driven by the fear of losing global relevance, the bloc has been mostly in a reactive mode, playing catch up, seeking to enhance economic resilience and competitiveness in a way that supports its digital transition while balancing regulation and innovation. In this process, it has started to pay more attention to Taiwan, an advanced economy and mature democracy, and also a leader in emerging technologies. Taiwan has doubled down on efforts to engage like-minded partners, including the EU as a whole and individual EU member states, as a way to cement their support to withstand the existential threat it faces from China.

Trump’s foreign policy vision and strategy are still emerging. Yet, the next four years are likely to transform transatlantic relations and significantly impact EU-Taiwan relations. While it is tough to predict how Trump will behave on the global stage, the EU and Taiwan will face pressure to align with Washington, even if, in their perceptions, such alignment might not always serve their interests as much as those of Washington.

Trump’s win appears to be adding a sense of urgency both to Brussels and Taipei to invest in resilience and self-reliance, in cooperation with like-minded partners. Stepping up their resilience individually and, where possible, together and reinforcing mutual awareness is an investment that will benefit both, irrespective of how Trump’s presidency unfolds. 

Download the policy paper by Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy (PDF)