Nottingham Centre for Research on
Globalisation and Economic Policy (GEP)

GEP Seminar: Erik Hornung (University of Cologne)

Location
Zoom
Date(s)
Tuesday 23rd November 2021 (15:00-16:15)
Description

NAFTA and drug-related violence in Mexico (with Eduardo Hidalgo and Pablo Selaya)

Abstract:  We investigate how the introduction of NAFTA in 1994 affected drug-related violence in Mexico. NAFTA's open border policy increased profits for drug-tracking organizations leading to increased competition over smuggling routes. Using a generalized DiD approach, we inspect changes in drug-related homicides after the agreement across municipalities with and without optimal drug-trafficking routes, predicted using least cost paths algorithms. Homicides increase by 2.6 deaths per 100.000 inhabitants in municipalities with a drug-trafficking route, equivalent to an increase of 30% relative to the pre-NAFTA mean. The resulting persistent shift in violence is driven by a relocation effect concentrating on the routes.

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Enquiries: hilary.hughes@nottingham.ac.uk