CeDEx 2013-07: One Swallow Doesn't Make a Summer: New Evidence on Anchoring Effects

Abstract

Some researchers have argued that anchoring in economic valuations casts doubt on the assumption of consistent and stable preferences. We present new evidence that questions the robustness of certain anchoring results. We then present a theoretical framework that provides insights into why we should be cautious of initial empirical findings in general. The model importantly highlights that the rate of false positives depends not only on the observed significance level, but also on statistical power, research priors, and the number of scholars exploring the question. Importantly, a few independent replications dramatically increase the chances that a given original finding is true.

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Now published in American Economic Review 2014; 104(1): 277-290

Authors

Zacharias Maniadis, Fabio Tufano and John A. List

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