Conference Papers
Friday 8 September
Panel Session 1
1.1 Brexit and identity
The role of religion in Brexit
Stuart Fox
Connectedness, identity and values: Understanding the divides behind Brexit
Paula Surridge, Siobhan McAndrew, and Neema Begum
National identity, social class and attitudes to Brexit in Northern Ireland
Jon Tonge
Ethnic minority support for leaving the European Union
Nicole Martin and Maria Sobolewska
1.2 Wales
What is your type? The effects of candidate type on their campaign behaviour
Siim Trumm
Examining trends in party campaigning at different order elections: Wales 2010-17
David Cutts, Jac Larner, Roger Scully, and Ron Johnston
Measuring public attitudes to devolution
Roger Scully
1.3 Voter turnout
It’s a group thing: How voters go to the polls together
Ed Fieldhouse, Yosef Bhatti, and Kasper Hansen
Apportioning the blame for turnout decline in Eastern Europe: Changing elections or generational replacement?
Ksenia Northmore-Ball and Mark Franklin
Political engagement: Evidence from the UK’s longitudinal studies
Alison Park and David Church
The Consequences of Increasing Turnout in Low-Salience Elections: Evidence from Concurrent Elections in Germany
Arndt Leininger and Lukas Rudolph
1.4 Teaching undergraduate quantitative research methods: Software choices
R
Scott Moser
SPSS
Raul Gomez
Excel
Helen Williams
Panel Session 2
2.1 The 2017 general election I
Visiting voters: Leader visits at the 2017 general election
Alia Middleton
Leaflet messaging during the 2017 general election campaign
Caitlin Milazzo , Jesse Hammond, and Joshua Townsley
One Show? Exploring whether and how the two major parties reasserted their dominance of news media coverage in the 2017 General Election
Dominic Wring, David Deacon, John Downey, David Smith, and James Stanyer
Digital campaigning at the 2017 general election
Kate Dommett and Luke Temple
2.2 Forecasting recent elections
A postmortem on forecasts for the 2017 British general election
Stephen Fisher, John Kenny , and Rosalind Shorrocks
Forecasting the 2017 German election
Roland Kappe
Predicting the results of the 2016 US presidential election
Martyn Hill
2.3 Party membership
The secret of leaving: Who quits their party and why? Grassroots members in the U
Tim Bale, Paul Webb, and Monica Poletti
Multi-speed membership parties in practice: A membership survey of Podemos
Raul Gomez and Luis Ramiro
Who are the ‘crackpots’? Analysing the Democratic Unionist Party’s membership and voting base
Jon Tonge and Raul Gomez
"It's just a step to the left": Ideology, independence and the 2014 party membership surge in Scotland
Lynn Bennie, Rob Johns and James Mitchell
2.4 Winners and losers
Having a say or getting what you want: Tax morale, political participation, and losers’ consent in a multi-country experiment
Jonathan Mellon, Fredrik Sjoberg, Johannes Hemker, and Tiago Peixoto
Voting for losers and support for electoral reform: Evidence from Great Britain
Christopher Prosser
Democratic discontent in a majoritarian setting: What kind of democracy do British citizens want (but feel they are not getting)?
Ben Seyd
The consequences of repeatedly losing on legitimacy beliefs
Ann-Kristin Kölln and Anna Kern
Saturday 9 September
Panel Session 3
3.1 What do citizens want from Brexit?
What “Brexit Means Brexit” means to citizens
Sara Hobolt
Red lines and compromises: Identity and public opinion on the Brexit negotiations
Lindsay Richards
You can't always get what you want: Studying public opinion on multidimensional policies in the context of Brexit
Carolina Plescia and Magdalena Staniek
3.2 Political elites I
The legacy of egalitarian political institutions on support for women politicians
Anja Neundorf and Rosalind Shorrocks
Party system institutionalization and choice of cabinet ministers in Asian democracies
Don S. Lee and Fernando Casal Bertoa
Evidence of candidate quality in UK parliamentary elections
Jennifer Hudson and Caitlin Milazzo
Who likes independent-minded MPs? Approval of legislator dissent in Austria, Germany, and the United Kingdom Markus Wagner, Nick Vivyan, and Konstantin Glinitzer
3.3 Campaigns I
"How does politics affect perceptions of place? The effect of campaigns on perceptions about immigration
Jake Bowers, Ed Fieldhouse, Jane Green, and Cara Wong
#Brexit. Analyzing tweets, surveying tweeters to understand public opinion dynamics during the EU Referendum campaign
Heinz Brandenburg, Marcel van Egmond, and Rob Johns
‘Knock-Knock’: The role of personal contact between local parties and voters during election campaigns in Britain Joshua Townsley
The information and persuasion effects of accurate and inaccurate claims in advertising
Daniel Stevens and Gabriel Katz
Panel Session 4
4.1 EU referendum vote choice I
Brexit and political choice in Britain
Harold Clarke, Matthew Goodwin, Marianne C. Stewart, and Paul Whiteley
Old fractures for new generations? The role of social class in young people’s vote choice in the Brexit referendum Davide Angelucci
Brexit and the New Labour Legacy: The Partisan and Socioeconomic Roots of the Leave Vote
Jonathan Mellon, Christopher Prosser, and Geoff Evans
An explanation for Brexit
James Dennison, Geoff Evans, and Noah Carl
4.2 Political elites II
Exploring variation in political ambition across a multi-level political opportunity structure
Peter Allen and David Cutts
Public profiles and promotions for government ministers in East Asia
Don S. Lee and Paul J. Schuler
Ideology and the UK far right
John Meadowcroft and Elizabeth Morrow
The role of political elites in lowering support for welfare provision: Evidence from British parliamentary speeches from 1987-2015
Tom O'Grady
4.3 Media and advertising
What the fact? An experiment on the political persuasiveness of experts' advices
Berta Barbet Porta, Antoni-Italo de Moragas and Guillem Vidal
Addressing the conditioning of voters’ perceptions of political pluralism in the media: Evidence from a panel study
Anne Jadot
Does political advertising mislead voters?
Daniel Stevens and Barbara Allen
Pursuing the personal vote on new media: A comparison of parliamentary candidates in the United Kingdom and Japan
Sean Vincent
4.4 Defection
Defecting from the incumbent: motivated reasoning versus economic voting in the Spanish Election of 2015
Javier Martínez-Cantó and Nadja Wehl
Should we stay or should we go? Explaining the role of primary loss on voter defection in the 2017 French presidential elections
Jae-Jae Spoon and Zachary D. Greene
Leaving Labour: Values, valence and vote switching
Paula Surridge
The limits of democratic control: Three decades of retrospective voting in the United Kingdom
Konstantin Glinitzer
Panel Session 5
5.1 Measuring ideology
The changing structure of ideology in Europe
Heinz Brandenburg and Zachary Greene
The sources of complexity: Measuring and explaining the dimensionality of party ideological perceptions
Royce Carroll and Hiroki Kubo
Policy Ideology in European Mass Publics, 1981 - 2014
Tom O'Grady, Devin Caughey, and Chris Warshaw
The foundations of the spatial model: Estimating the distance metric
Ugur Ozdemir
5.2 Issue positions I
Mapping the New Politics: Dimensions of Political Attitudes in Uncertain Times
Christopher Prosser and Jonathan Mellon
Strength of party support and perceptions of issue proximity
Philipp Dreyer
Assessing the validity of environmental protection measures in the British Election Study
John Kenny
Constraining change or changing constraints? Attitude-predisposition relations after employment status changes
Nadja Wehl
5.3 Congruence
Elite/mass attitudinal congruence before and after Brexit: A case study of representational responsiveness
Rosie Campbell, Jane Green, and Jennifer Hudson
Similar yet different: Patterns and causes of gender differences in opinion-policy congruence in Europe
Stefanie Reher
The dynamics of representation: A comparative assessment of elite-public opinion interaction on the verge of the economic crisis in Europe
Kaat Smets and Pierangelo Isernia
The mandate divide: Examining representative responsiveness in the devolved UK
Alex Parsons
5.4 Political elites III
Does 'May's law' apply to 21st century British political parties?
Peter Allen, Tim Bale, Rosie Campbell, Jennifer Hudson, Chrysa Lamprinakou, Monica Poletti, and Paul Webb
Electoral violence and partisan advantage: The Turkish case
Emre Toros and Sarah Birch
The UK Co-operative Party and New Labour: Three models of policy influence
Sean Kippin
Jobs for the boys? How MPs’ pre-parliamentary career affect their frontbench prospectWang
Leung Ting
Panel Session 6
6.1 Campaigns II
Candidate-centred campaigning in the 2015 general election
Caitlin Milazzo, Joshua Townsley, and Jesse Hammond
Do issue primes affect vote choice? Results from a field experiment in the 2017 General Elections
Florian Foos and Peter C. John
The Independence Echo: the rise of the constitutional question in Scottish election manifestos and voter behaviour Zachary Greene, Fraser McMillan, and Kenneth Stevenson
6.2 Insights from qualitative research into voting behaviour
Popular leader evaluations across two UK general elections: A qualitative analysis of focus group data using Crowdflower
Kristi Winters, Thom Oliver, and Edzia Carvalho
When and how do voters tune in – or out? Social and political biases in the reception of the (eventful!) 2017 French presidential election
Anne Jadot, Pierre Lefébure, and Claire Sécail
Are partisan voters just like loyal sports fans? An exploration of voters’ partisanship using QESB data
Kristi Winters, Edzia Carvalho, and Thom Oliver
6.3 Vote choice II
Having a say or getting your way: The impact of expressive and instrumental political choice
Sara Hobolt, Julian Hoerner, and Toni Rodon
On being a voter: Developing survey measure of expressive voting
Ed Fieldhouse
Do Remainers move to Islington? Partisan residential sorting in the UK
Eric Kaufmann
Effects of candidates’ names on voting patterns in the Scottish local government elections in 2012 and 2017
James Gilmour
6.4 The 2017 general election II
Voter experience at the (many) 2017 elections
Phil Thompson
Twice in a row? UK party members’ campaign activity in the 2015 and 2017 general elections compared
Tim Bale, Paul Webb, and Monica Poletti
The Liberal Democrats and the ‘Brexit Election’: If they can’t win now, when can they win?
David Cutts and Andrew Russell
An analysis of the constituency results for the 2017 British general election
John Curtice, Patrick English, Stephen Fisher, and Robert Ford
Sunday 10 September
Panel Session 7
7.1 Elites and Brexit
British MPs after the EU membership referendum: Principles, party politics and public opinion
Chris Stafford
Fighting the ‘Federasts’: Assessing the Impact of Eric Forth's Euroscepticism, 1979-2006
Mark Stuart
Parties, Parliament and the Brexit Process
Richard Whitaker, Philip Lynch, and Adam Cygan
7.2 Populism
Two of a kind? Populism and political cynicism compared
Irene Esteban and Koen Abts
Attitudes to Democracy and Support for Radical Parties in Europe
Caroline McEvoy
Can narratives of white identity reduce support for Hard Brexit and Trump?
Eric Kaufmann
Do populist parties increase turnout?
Maurits Meijers and Arndt Leininger
7.3 Party positions
Deconstructing blurring: party strategy in a multidimensional environment
Jelle Koedam
Capturing Party Policy Shifts: BREXIT, Corbyn and the BES expert survey
Thomas Loughran
Defining and identifying the centre party
Nick Barlow
7.4 Satisfaction with Democracy
The consequences of procedural fairness perceptions: The case of the UK's EU referendum
Cees van der Eijk
Education, class and democratic satisfaction in UK ethnic minorities
Rakib Ehsan
How do post-Soviet citizens view democracy? Democratic knowledge and support in Russia, Ukraine and Belarus Emily Look
Mind this gap, too: Resources, representation, and political orientations of citizens with disabilities
Stefanie Reher
Panel Session 8
8.1 Electoral competition
Federalism and party system fragmentation: On the unintended consequences of increasing decentralization
Florian Foos and Daniel Bischof
Long-term and short-term evolution of electoral competition in Britain
Cees van der Eijk
Intra-camp electoral competition and electoral performance in authoritarian regimes: Evidence from Hong Kong legislative elections from 2004 to 2016
Nick Or and Stan Hok-Wui Wong
The end of the “winner’s bonus”? A study of Labour-Conservative marginals at the 2015 UK General Election
Chris Butler
8.2 Issue positions II
The European debt crisis and the role of Europe in Portugal
Britta Baumgarten and Vicente Dinis Valentim
Generational change and attitudes to immigration in the UK
Lauren McLaren and Ian Paterson
Explaining variation in public opinion to immigration in Europe
James Dennison, Andrew Geddes, and Teresa Talò
8.3 EU referendum vote choice II
Ethnic minority voting behaviour in the 2016 EU referendum and the 2017 general election
Neema Begum
How the transmission of parental preference affected vote choice in the EU referendum
Stuart Fox
Disaggregating preferences: How referendum voting differs from parliamentary voting
Richard Rose
The generational gap in EU support: A cross-national perspective
Rosalind Shorrocks and Roosmarijn de Geus
8.4 Strategic voting
Confounding Duverger: Why don’t Indians vote tactically?
Oliver Heath
Networks, Turnout, and Strategic Voting in the 2015 Canadian Election
Debra Leiter and Jack Reilly
Taking Real Ballots Seriously: Modeling Heterogeneous Choice Sets in the 2015 UK Elections
Ingrid Mauerer, Paul W. Thurner, and Annemarie Walter
Volatile voters and stuttering centrists: A party-centric approach to explaining rising levels of vote-switching
Zack Grant