Tuesday, 10 November 2020
The financial risk to small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) in the wake of Covid-19 is being investigated by researchers at Nottingham University Business School.
The UK-wide study, in collaboration with the Bank of England, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), the University of Exeter and the University of Lancaster, will examine the resilience of SMEs and their risk exposure – a measure of potential loss or future losses - resulting from Covid-19.
The researchers will subsequently develop new methods to help support SMEs in the aftermath of the pandemic.
SMEs are widely recognised as a key pillar of the UK economy and more than 99% of the approximately six million businesses in the UK are SMEs, employing more than 16 million workers1.
As the COVID-19 crisis unfolds, SMEs are faced with unprecedented challenges, including declining revenues, inability to retain employees, postponement of investments and loan repayment difficulties.
The 18-month study, funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), as part of UK Research and Innovation’s (UKRI) rapid response to COVID-19, will construct a measure of economic risk for pandemic extreme events and develop a new credit risk assessment protocol to evaluate SME borrower profiles (or score cards).
Building on the integration of economic and non-economic data, the project will make
use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to widen the range of firms that can be rated methodologically and that can, therefore, access different funding channels.
As a result, the project will address the problem of structural credit constraints for SMEs when exposed to extreme pressures. A major part of the project will be devoted to the implementation of Machine Learning and Deep Learning to draw information from varied sources of financial, sociodemographic, and geographical data.
By combining various datasets and factors that have previously been considered in isolation, the experts will be able to construct one holistic set of metrics to provide a complete picture of the challenges and opportunities facing SMEs.
Project lead, Dr Meryem Duygun, a Professor of Banking and Finance at the Nottingham University Business School, said: “The pandemic has caused significant economic disruption at both national and international levels, but it is also providing an ideal opportunity for reform to improve the fundamentals of the UK’s economic structure.
"Our study will contribute to enhancing SMEs’ resilience and boost their (extreme event) risk management and prevention skills. To achieve this, we will exploit a range of novel approaches specifically tailored for UK SMEs."
By accurately assessing the overall pandemic risk and credit risk exposure of SMEs, we hope that our study will assist policy makers to design adequate and timely measures. Equally, the banking sector may utilise our study findings to improve their design of score cards during pandemic events
Dr Eddie Gerba, Research Manager at the Bank of England, said: “This is a fantastic opportunity to deepen our understanding of the challenges and risks that SMEs face in rare and extreme events such as COVID-19, and better equip them for resilience.”
Flora Hamilton, Director of Financial Services at the CBI, said: “This study will provide some useful tools to assess the credit risk exposure of SMEs in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. With the winter months likely to disrupt demand and cash flow in many sectors of the economy, this research will be valuable for informing future policy decisions and will help improve the resilience of many SMEs.”
Story credits
More information is available from Professor Meryem Duygun in the Faculty of Social Sciences at the University of Nottingham at Meryem.Duygun@nottingham.ac.uk; or Katie Andrews, in the Press Office at the University of Nottingham at Katie.Andrews@nottingham.ac.uk
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Notes to editors:
- Federation of Small Businesses
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About the University of Nottingham
Ranked 32 in Europe and 16th in the UK by the QS World University Rankings: Europe 2024, the University of Nottingham is a founding member of the Russell Group of research-intensive universities. Studying at the University of Nottingham is a life-changing experience, and we pride ourselves on unlocking the potential of our students. We have a pioneering spirit, expressed in the vision of our founder Sir Jesse Boot, which has seen us lead the way in establishing campuses in China and Malaysia - part of a globally connected network of education, research and industrial engagement.
Nottingham was crowned Sports University of the Year by The Times and Sunday Times Good University Guide 2024 – the third time it has been given the honour since 2018 – and by the Daily Mail University Guide 2024.
The university is among the best universities in the UK for the strength of our research, positioned seventh for research power in the UK according to REF 2021. The birthplace of discoveries such as MRI and ibuprofen, our innovations transform lives and tackle global problems such as sustainable food supplies, ending modern slavery, developing greener transport, and reducing reliance on fossil fuels.
The university is a major employer and industry partner - locally and globally - and our graduates are the second most targeted by the UK's top employers, according to The Graduate Market in 2022 report by High Fliers Research.
We lead the Universities for Nottingham initiative, in partnership with Nottingham Trent University, a pioneering collaboration between the city’s two world-class institutions to improve levels of prosperity, opportunity, sustainability, health and wellbeing for residents in the city and region we are proud to call home.
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