Thursday, 21 November 2024
Researchers at the University of Nottingham have created an AI model that allows them to accurately predict the amount of solar energy that can be created in different climates, making grid integration easier in the UK.
Solar energy now contributes almost six per cent of the UK’s energy, with this predicted to double over the next five years. This makes the UK’s climate, particularly the amount of consistent cloud cover, a challenge for the generation of solar power.
Solar forecasting, and the ability to predict how much sunlight a certain area might receive, has therefore become more important, prompting researchers in the Faculty of Engineering to find new ways of making this process more reliable.
As a novel approach, researchers have used very-short-term (VST) solar energy forecasting, using ground-based fisheye images, which has proven effective in predicting rapid and accurate changes in solar irradiance, especially for fast-changing local cloud movements.
To address varied geographical and climatic conditions, the researchers showed that a model initially trained in California's sunny climate can effectively predict solar output in Nottingham, known for its humid and rainy conditions.
The approach significantly cut down the amount of local data needed to make accurate forecasts—from four months' worth to just two weeks.
Liwenbo Zhang, a Postdoctoral Research Fellow from the University of Nottingham, said: “This breakthrough could make it much faster and easier to predict solar energy output in new locations, helping to balance energy grids and integrate solar power more efficiently.
It means that solar forecasting can be more adaptable to diverse climates, which is crucial as we aim to rely more on renewable energy sources globally.”
In using data from other locations, the researchers hope that a model trained in a region with stable sunlight can be adapted for an area with more unpredictable sunlight, like Nottingham, and be beneficial for future energy targets.
The full research paper is available here.
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More information is available from Faith Pring in the Press Office on faith.pring@nottingham.ac.uk
Faith Pring - Media Relations Manager
Email: faith.pring@nottingham.ac.uk
Phone: 0115 748 4411
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About the University of Nottingham
Ranked 32 in Europe and 16th in the UK by the QS World University Rankings: Europe 2024, the University of Nottingham is a founding member of the Russell Group of research-intensive universities. Studying at the University of Nottingham is a life-changing experience, and we pride ourselves on unlocking the potential of our students. We have a pioneering spirit, expressed in the vision of our founder Sir Jesse Boot, which has seen us lead the way in establishing campuses in China and Malaysia - part of a globally connected network of education, research and industrial engagement.
Nottingham was crowned Sports University of the Year by The Times and Sunday Times Good University Guide 2024 – the third time it has been given the honour since 2018 – and by the Daily Mail University Guide 2024.
The university is among the best universities in the UK for the strength of our research, positioned seventh for research power in the UK according to REF 2021. The birthplace of discoveries such as MRI and ibuprofen, our innovations transform lives and tackle global problems such as sustainable food supplies, ending modern slavery, developing greener transport, and reducing reliance on fossil fuels.
The university is a major employer and industry partner - locally and globally - and our graduates are the second most targeted by the UK's top employers, according to The Graduate Market in 2022 report by High Fliers Research.
We lead the Universities for Nottingham initiative, in partnership with Nottingham Trent University, a pioneering collaboration between the city’s two world-class institutions to improve levels of prosperity, opportunity, sustainability, health and wellbeing for residents in the city and region we are proud to call home.
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