Post-16 mathematics entries reach a record high in 2024!

Stephen Lee, Senior Research Fellow

Ofqual has published the provisional number of entries for GCSE, AS and A level for summer 2024. These represent the figures submitted by schools and colleges in England to awarding organisations on 18 April 2024 (the final number may vary slightly when they are published later in the year).  

The overall headline figures (for all subjects combined) in this release are:  

• GCSE entries have increased by 4.8% from 5,543,840 in summer 2023 to 5,811,790 in summer 2024 

• A level entries have increased by 2.4% from 806,410 in summer 2023 to 825,390 in summer 2024 

• AS entries have decreased by 4.5% from 62,785 in summer 2023 to 59,935 in summer 2024 

GCSE Mathematics and GCSE Statistics 

For GCSE Ofqual note that:  

“The majority of GCSE entries are from year 11 students. Entries from year 11 students have increased in summer 2024 compared with summer 2023 (an increase of 4.1%). This increase, however, should be considered in the context of a 5.2% increase in the size of the population of those aged 16 in England, from 663,078 in 2023 (according to ONS population estimates in 2021) to 697,673 in 2024 (according to ONS population estimates in 2022).” 

Moving away from overall entry totals to individual subjects, for GCSE Mathematics - 634,870 entries were from Year 11, with 2,425 from Year 10 or below. However, almost a quarter of the 842,595 GCSE Mathematics entries in summer 2024 were from Year 12 or above (101,855 from Year 12, 103,440 from Year 13 and above). These will almost exclusively be resit students, and this is a group that the Observatory continues to support through its Mastering Maths project.   

The largest percentage increase for a GCSE subject was Statistics at 20.3% (26,785 in 2023 to 32,210 in 2024). Looking further at the breakdown for Statistics, the number of entries for Year 10 or earlier remained similar at 8,760 in 2024 compared to 8,600 in 2023, with the increase coming from Year 11 (17,795 in 2023 to 23,010 in 2024). 

A level Mathematics and A level Further Mathematics 

For A level Ofqual note that the 2.4% increase in entries overall is partially explained by the 1.2% increase in the size of the population who are aged 18. Focussing attention to individual A level subjects, the top four percentage increases from 2023 to 2024 were: 

• Further Mathematics: 19.8% (14,535 in 2023 to 17,420 in 2024)  

• Physics: 12.6% (35,815 to 40,320) 

• Computing: 11.8% (17,420 to 19,475)  

• Mathematics: 11.4% (90,845 to 101,230) 

Remarkably, if these provisional entry data align with final entries in the summer, this would be the first instance of more than 100,000 entries to A level Mathematics in an examination session since A levels were introduced in 1951. This would also mean a doubling of A level Mathematics entries in the past 20 years – JCQ data shows there were 47,997 entries in England in 2004.   

AS level 

Though there was a small fall in overall AS entries in 2024, they now remain consistent at around 60,000. AS Mathematics sees around 8,500 entries, but AS Further Mathematics showed the largest percentage increase of 9.6% (4,655 in 2023 to 5,100 in 2024)  

A key role of the Observatory is to consider system and policy changes over extended periods of time. Just one of many possible items pertinent to this data release is that 2016 marked the first year some of the reformed AS qualifications were examined. Collating the past 10 years of these Ofqual provisional statistics allows for the following table to be produced for total AS and A level entries, prior to, and after these reforms: 

Considering the longer-term, rather than just the five years of data in the 2024 Ofqual publication, allows the effects of wider curriculum and policy changes to be observed – ten years ago in 2014 the total number of AS entries was 1,350,540, compared to 59,935 in 2024.  

Observatory activity related to post-16 and transition to university 

The picture from these 2024 data is especially positive for mathematics post-16, in particular A level Mathematics entries reaching 100,000. However, the absolute number of GCSE Mathematics entries in Year 12/13 (mostly resits) being over 200,000 is an on-going area to note.   

In the coming years, students included in these Ofqual provisional summer 2024 results will be contained within the Observatory for Mathematical Education’s extensive trend analysis work.  

The Observatory also has an ambitious longitudinal Cohort Study strand of activity, incorporating primary, secondary/post-16, and higher education. This will encompass tens of thousands of students and thousands of teachers, across a period of seven years.  

After the summer 2024 A level results are released in August, one of the first student specific activities the Observatory is undertaking involves those who have a firm university offer on a maths degree (including joint honours courses). This collective group of over 5,000 students, potentially attending more than 70 different universities, will be invited to complete an online survey, prior to starting at university. This will explore ideas including the nature of maths, experiences of learning maths at school and expectations of what learning maths at university will be like. Students who complete the initial survey will be invited to take part in a follow-up towards the end of their first year at university.  

This research looking at the transition to university will be complemented by a study of Year 12 students, their parents/guardians and their teachers, taking place later in academic year 2024/25. These form part of the wider secondary cohort study involving over 150 schools/colleges from Year 7 onwards. 

Author information

Stephen joined the Observatory in 2024 as a Senior Research Fellow. Previously, he spent 18 years at the charity and curriculum development organisation Mathematics in Education and Industry (MEI).

Observatory for Mathematical Education team

Observatory for Mathematical Education on LinkedIn.