Understanding learner trajectories

Before we can improve the mathematics education system, we have to understand things as they currently are, from primary education to postgraduate degrees. 

Understanding a system involving millions of learners and hundreds of thousands of educators across thousands of institutions is not trivial. Behind each ‘number’ in our data is an individual with their own unique combination of family, friends, teachers and place of learning. What are their chances of making the desired progress, achieving high attainment or choosing to participate in mathematics?

Using national data, we can establish who are the students most likely to excel under the current system.  Some patterns are well established, such as lower progress by students from poorer backgrounds and higher participation by male students, but the underlying picture is much more nuanced. If we are to address inequalities in the system, we need a better understanding of the interaction between sex, socio-economic class, ethnicity and each student’s school/college/university and regional context. Consistently analysing these trends over time and finding pockets of ‘over-achievement’ will give clues as to which policies and interventions are making a positive difference.

Our trend analysis is underpinned by a cohort approach. Each cohort going through the system experiences a different combination of policies and pedagogies as strategies come and go. The effect of a change at early years level will only be felt in postgraduate education 20 years later. We therefore track each cohort to pinpoint where and when in the system things are going well and where there are challenges. By following individuals into adulthood and employment we can measure the importance of mathematics for the social mobility of the individual and the economic return for the country.

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