High-speed railway infrastructure is a complex arrangement of systems and structures, which includes: track, switches, drainage, signalling, power supply and communications, in addition to the civil structures comprising earthworks, tunnels, bridges and stations. As new high-speed railways are built, it is important that plans are in place to ensure they are sustainable and affordable so that elements can be renewed as they wear out or become obsolete due to new technologies. The funding for renewals is generated through a usage charge levied by the infrastructure owners on the train operating companies. However, should this charge be too little then necessary replacements will not take place, or, in the event that it be too much, the consequence is higher than necessary fares for passengers.
To be able to fix and justify the right charge requires advances in areas of engineering. It is necessary to understand how all the infrastructure elements degrade due to either the passage of time or use. This enables the estimation of when replacement is necessary, and can be achieved using modelling methods which include artificial intelligence (AI). For systems and structures made of many components, aging at different rates, there is the additional challenge of combining the component performance predictions to give the performance of the entity.
Having established the degradation mechanisms for each of the asset types it is then necessary to plan when the renewals will be performed. This decision will be based on the costs incurred when selecting the alternative decisions and can be optimised. Some assets will degrade more slowly than others and so have more flexibility in fixing the exact renewal date. There are also practical considerations which will minimise any consequential service disruption.
Utilising the asset degradation models enables the asset renewal schedule to be produced in such a way as to minimise the costs to the infrastructure owner. This will be achieved through the definition of an optimisation problem which minimises the whole system costs and satisfies constraints which account for the practicalities of performing the renewals to have minimal impact on the service provision. The costs included in the objective function will include the costs of the renewals, the costs of the penalties for service disruption and the costs associated with additional maintenance to keep aging assets in an acceptable condition beyond the predicted renewal time. The modelling will account for the uncertainty in both the costs and the degradation profiles. Once the model is created it would enable the new schedules to be determined in the event that track utilisation (volumes of freight and passenger traffic) changed.